Is Transnistria the new Crimea?

On October 18, Moldova suspended the broadcasts of Russian TV stations (Rossia-24, Channel One, NTV and Rossia-RTR) due to propaganda tools they use. This is not the first time in recent months that Moldova clashes with Russia. The reason isn't other than the Transnistria dispute.

Transnistria (or Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) is a landlocked state with limited recognition on the internationally recognized territory of Moldova in Eastern Europe. It is located between the River Dniester and the eastern Moldovan border with Ukraine. It covers an area of 4,163 km² and has a population of about 500,000 people. It has its own parliament (Supreme Council), president, government and currency. It is recognised only by three non-UN members (Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia) so far and together have established the “Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations”. Many analysts refer to Transnistria as a “black hole” or Europe’s last Soviet Bastion...

Even before the dissolution of the USSR, Transnistria declared its independence in September 1990. In March 1992 the Transnistria War broke out between this de facto sovereign state and the newly created Moldova. The pro-Transnistria forces didn’t wish to separate from the Soviet Union and were supported by the Russian 14th Army during the conflict. In September 2006 a referendum was held, the seventh since 1989. Voters were asked whether they approved the possibility of renouncing independence and potential future integration into Moldova, or alternatively independence and potential future integration into the Russian Federation. The vast majority (>95%) voted for Russia and against Moldova in both polls. Transnistrian officials wish for closer ties with Russia and even proposed to adopt the Russian flag alongside the current state flag and the Russian ruble as the state’s currency.

Transnistria is based on an anemic economy, which is frequently described as dependent on contraband, gunrunning and human trafficking. Russia’s financial support (mainly through external trade) is vital for its sustainability. This is why for about 24 years, the Transnistrian region -a “frozen conflict” zone nowadays- remains in the tug of war between Russia and the West regarding the control of Eastern Europe. It could be characterized as a less-importance “battleground” until the Crimean crisis and its annexation by Russia. During last April, the Supreme Council requested Russia to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the state -and apparently its future union with Russia!

This annexation scenario can be further supported if we take into account that a month prior the request, Romania and Ukraine’s new government signed an agreement to enhance military cooperation. It should be highlighted that during the Transnistria War, Romania was the only state to support and supply Moldova with equipment and armed forces. According to many experts, a Crimea-like annexation is not possible mainly because Transnistria is landlocked and surrounded by non-friendly states (Moldova, Ukraine). But they believe that a new unique “Transnistria scenario” is going to be implemented soon if Russia feels that loses the control in the region.

But Transnistria is not the only dispute on the territory of Moldova or in the region. Bessarabia, a historical region in Romania, Moldova and Ukraine is still claimed by Romania as part of Greater Romania. In addition, Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia in Moldova held a referendum in February where the majority of the voters opted for closer ties with Russia and for the independence of Gagauzia if Moldova chooses to join the EU...

While the conflict in Ukraine is still on-going today, the future of both Transnistria and the broader region remains unclear. Nobody can be totally sure if the current status quo will be kept or Transnistria will become the 86th federal subject of the Russian Federation! The Cold War games are not over and a new “Berlin wall” could be erected in Eastern Europe.

Το παρόν άρθρο δημοσιεύτηκε στην ιστοσελίδα Open Society